Wind Power Prediction by using Ensemble Models
نویسنده
چکیده
We compare structural different methods of the artificial intelligence for wind power prediction modeling and build additionally ensembles of the models. As input variables for these prediction methods weather data of a numerical weather prediction model are used. The performance of the presented methods is compared to the predictions of the neural network based model.
منابع مشابه
Wind Power Prediction with Machine Learning Ensembles
For a sustainable integration of wind power into the electricity grid, precise and robust predictions are required. With increasing installed capacity and changing energy markets, there is a growing demand for short-term predictions. Machine learning methods can be used as a purely data-driven, spatio-temporal prediction model that yields better results than traditional physical models based on...
متن کاملAnalysis of prediction models for wind energy characteristics, Case study: Karaj, Iran
Iran is a country completely dependent on fossil fuel resources. In order to obtain a diversity of energy sources, it requires other resources, especially renewable energy. Utilization of wind energy appears to be one of the most efficient ways of achieving sustainable development. The quantification of wind potential is a pivotal and essential initial step while developing strategies for the de...
متن کاملEnsemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting
Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs ...
متن کاملSkill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods
This paper presents an investigation on alternative approaches to the providing of uncertainty estimates associated to point predictions of wind generation. Focus is given to skill forecasts in the form of prediction risk indices, aiming at giving a comprehensive signal on the expected level of forecast uncertainty. Ensemble predictions of wind generation are used as input. A proposal for the d...
متن کاملWind Power Forecasting Using Ensembles
Short-term prediction of wind energy is by now an established field of wind power technology. For the last 15 years, our groups have worked in the field and developed short-term prediction models being used operatively at the major Danish utilities since 1996. The next step in the development of the models is to use ensemble forecasts. The ensembles are produced routinely at US NCEP (National C...
متن کامل